Premier League SCR · 1 March 2027
The first SCR Compliance Test: which Premier League clubs are at risk?
How the Compliance Test works
The SCR Compliance Test is the Premier League's in-season check. On the SCR Compliance Date, 1 March, the Board compares each club's estimated squad cost (after the October and February In-Season Financial Adjustments, so the January window counts) with its estimated football revenue, built from the previous season's accounts plus central league income. It is a test on estimates, not audited figures: the Accounts Confirmation Test checks the numbers again in June.
| Squad cost ratio on 1 March | Status | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| At or under 85% | Compliant | Nothing to answer for. The club's allowance rebuilds by 10 points a season, up to 30% (the Positive Feedback Loop). |
| Over 85%, under the Red Threshold | Breach Notification | No points lost. The club sits the Accounts Confirmation Test in June; a breach there cuts next season's allowance by the size of the overspend. The levy is deferred until 2027/28. |
| Over the Red Threshold | Sporting sanction | 6 points plus one per £6.5m over, rounded up, from the current season's total once the seven-day dispute window has passed. |
How many points? The formula, worked through
Rule F.4 of the Premier League's SCR rules sets the sanction as a fixed 6 points plus the overspend divided by £6.5m, rounded up to the nearest integer. There is no tariff to argue over and no commission weighing the case, unlike the old PSR deductions. There is also no cap.
| Overspend above the Red Threshold | Points deducted |
|---|---|
| £1 | 7 |
| £6.5m | 7 |
| £10m | 8 |
| £32.5m | 11 |
| £65m | 16 |
Repeat offenders pay more: a club over Red in consecutive seasons has its total multiplied by 1.3 in the second season and 1.6 in the third, rising by 0.3 a season after that (Rule F.5). This is the first season, so no club carries a multiplier yet.
Every Premier League club's distance from the lines
Most exposed first. To Green is how much more the club could spend before crossing 85%; To Red is how much more before a points deduction. A negative figure means the line is already crossed on these estimates.
| Club | Squad cost ratio | Status | To Green (85%) | To Red | Points if tested today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City* | 91.5% | Breach Notification | −£2.9m | +£10.5m | 0 |
| Fulham | 89.3% | Breach Notification | −£9.6m | +£57.1m | 0 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 88.0% | Breach Notification | −£6.4m | +£57.5m | 0 |
| Coventry City* | 86.6% | Breach Notification | −£701k | +£12.4m | 0 |
| Aston Villa | 82.4% | Under 85% | +£10.8m | +£138.2m | 0 |
| Manchester City | 77.4% | Under 85% | +£61.8m | +£305.6m | 0 |
| Nottingham Forest | 76.9% | Under 85% | +£20.9m | +£98.6m | 0 |
| Brentford | 76.0% | Under 85% | +£17.4m | +£75.1m | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 75.2% | Under 85% | +£21.4m | +£87.2m | 0 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 73.7% | Under 85% | +£36.1m | +£131.7m | 0 |
| Sunderland | 73.0% | Under 85% | +£26.4m | +£92.4m | 0 |
| Ipswich Town | 72.5% | Under 85% | +£20.1m | +£68.7m | 0 |
| Newcastle United | 70.2% | Under 85% | +£54.1m | +£164m | 0 |
| Chelsea | 70.0% | Under 85% | +£87.3m | +£261.9m | 0 |
| Everton | 69.0% | Under 85% | +£38.3m | +£110m | 0 |
| Manchester United | 67.4% | Under 85% | +£127.1m | +£343.7m | 0 |
| Leeds United | 65.0% | Under 85% | +£54.2m | +£135.5m | 0 |
| Liverpool | 61.4% | Under 85% | +£174.7m | +£396.4m | 0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 59.3% | Under 85% | +£157.9m | +£342.5m | 0 |
| Arsenal | 57.5% | Under 85% | +£203m | +£424.6m | 0 |
These are this site's estimates from each club's latest published accounts (or a published projection for promoted clubs), with player-trading profit smoothed over three years. The Premier League tests its own 2026/27 estimates, including January business, which are not public. Treat the table as a guide to how much room each club has, not a forecast of the result. How the figures are built →
* Hull City and Coventry are shown on their last filed Championship accounts, because no published Premier League projection exists for them. The Premier League's test counts its own central payments in a club's estimated revenue, and a promoted club's wage bill rises too, so these figures say little about where either club will stand on 1 March.
Who is closest to a deduction?
On these figures the club nearest its Red Threshold is Fulham, at 89.3% of adjusted revenue. It could add about £57.1m of annual squad cost before 1 March without losing points. No club is over Red on these figures, so for the clubs above 85% the realistic first-season outcome is a Breach Notification and a smaller allowance next year, not a deduction. (Hull City and Coventry show smaller gaps, but on Championship-basis figures; see the note above.)
Over 85% on these estimates:
Why the January window matters
The February In-Season Financial Adjustment captures January signings, sales and contract changes before the 1 March test, so a club near a line can still move either way in January. A sale that books a profit lifts the revenue side; a signing adds wages and a year's amortisation to the squad cost side. How the summer 2026 window moved each club's headroom →
Disputes and timing
A club can challenge the Board's inputs within 14 days of receiving them, and the Board's decision within seven days (Rules G.1.3 and G.1.4). The sanction takes effect once that window has passed. Disputes concluded by 1 May can rescind or amend a pending sanction; later awards only feed into the following season. The Championship runs a different test: clubs are measured at the close of each transfer window and referred to a Panel rather than docked points automatically. Every SCR date for 2026/27 →
Frequently asked questions
When is the first Premier League SCR Compliance Test?
On 1 March 2027, the SCR Compliance Date. The Premier League Board tests each club's estimated squad cost, after its February In-Season Financial Adjustments (which capture January transfer business), against its estimated football revenue.
Which clubs could get a points deduction at the SCR Compliance Test?
On this site's estimates, no Premier League club is above its Red Threshold, so none is on course for a points deduction at the first test. 4 clubs sit above the 85% Green Threshold and would receive a Breach Notification, which costs allowance rather than points. These are estimates from published accounts, not the Premier League's own figures.
How many points is an SCR breach?
A club over its Red Threshold loses a fixed 6 points plus one point for every £6.5m of overspend, rounded up (Premier League Handbook 2026/27, Appendix 2 Rule F.4). £1 over costs 7 points. There is no cap, and consecutive seasons over Red multiply the total by 1.3, then 1.6.
What happens to a club over 85% but under the Red Threshold?
It receives a Breach Notification and sits the Accounts Confirmation Test on its provisional accounts in June. A breach there cuts next season's allowance by the size of the overspend. The levy on the band is deferred until 2027/28, and there is no points deduction.
Can a club dispute an SCR sanction?
Yes. A challenge to the Board's decision must be brought within seven days (Rule G.1.4), and the sanction does not take effect while that window is open. Disputes concluded by 1 May can rescind or amend a pending sanction.